Journal article
Sebastian Berghald, Stephanie Mayer, Patrik Bohlinger
Environmental Research Letters, 2024
Environmental Research Letters, 2024
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APA
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Berghald, S., Mayer, S., & Bohlinger, P. (2024). Revealing trends in extreme heatwave intensity: applying the UNSEEN approach to Nordic countries. Environmental Research Letters. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad2893
Chicago/Turabian
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Berghald, Sebastian, Stephanie Mayer, and Patrik Bohlinger. “Revealing Trends in Extreme Heatwave Intensity: Applying the UNSEEN Approach to Nordic Countries.” Environmental Research Letters (2024).
MLA
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Berghald, Sebastian, et al. “Revealing Trends in Extreme Heatwave Intensity: Applying the UNSEEN Approach to Nordic Countries.” Environmental Research Letters, 2024, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ad2893.
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@article{sebastian2024a,
title = {Revealing trends in extreme heatwave intensity: applying the UNSEEN approach to Nordic countries},
year = {2024},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/ad2893},
author = {Berghald, Sebastian and Mayer, Stephanie and Bohlinger, Patrik}
}
Abstract
The increase in heatwave intensity, causing heat stress and crop failures in many regions is a concerning impact of global climate change. In northern Europe, significant interannual variability previously prevented robust assessments of trends in heat extremes. However, with a large-ensemble seasonal hindcasts and archived forecasts dataset covering 1981–2022 multiple realisations of weather patterns can be pooled and assessed. What are recent trends of extreme temperatures? Has the risk for a 100-year heatwave event increased in Northern Europe? We apply the UNSEEN (UNprecedented Simulated Extremes using ENsembles) approach to assess the credibility of the model ensemble and use non-stationary extreme value analysis to quantify recent trends in extreme 3-day heatwaves in late spring and early summer (May to July). We find significant non-stationarity and positive trends in annual maximum heatwave intensity. We also show that heatwave volatility, i.e. the risk of clearly outstanding heatwaves, is highest in central Scandinavia.